For all my friends who are unfamiliar with the term series in baseball, there are one-hundred-sixty-two games in a season and teams typically play three or four games in a row against their opponent as opposed to one or on a rare circumstance back-to-back in the NBA. For fans of the NHL or NBA, each series in the baseball season is the equivalent of one game as there are only three or four off days in a month for each baseball team.
Expectations: Last season the Twins won their division convincingly, by nine games. The Twins would defeat the Blue Jays in two games in the wild card round. Their second play opponent, the defending World Series champion Houston Astros had a bye and of the six teams to receive a bye in the wild card round, only the Orioles have failed to make it out of the division series. The Twins would find a way to win game two of the series in Houston who had won each of their last eight games at home. Despite the major achievement of ending that streak, the Twins fanned out in Minnesota.
In the last game of their season, game four against the Astros, the Twins lost to a heart breaker by a score of three runs to two. The Twins only had six hits across games three and four in Minnesota. The Astros’ pitching staff was elite last season, so there was not much for the Twins to hang their heads about. With not much player turnover the future for 2024 looked bright and according to ESPN had a seventy-six percent chance to make the playoffs.
August 17th: As the marathon of a season that professional baseball presents neared the end, the Minnesota Twins were cruising to a playoff berth. There were thirty-nine games left in the season at that point and all the Twins had to do to make the playoffs win sixteen of them. The Twins had the second easiest schedule in the league remaining and yet this team could lose twenty-three games and still make the playoffs. It would take more than a complete and utter collapse to miss the postseason for the Twins. A negative miracle is what would need to happen for the Twins to miss the playoffs.
As of August Eighteenth, the Twins were in prime position to make the playoffs. FanGraphs gave the Twins a ninety-two percent chance to reach the playoffs because the Twins had won five of their previous eight series, which includes a series split of a four-game series. The Twins ran into the Padres, beat the Rangers three out of four times, in the middle of August but lost the final game of the series. After their meeting with the Rangers, the Twins would win just two series out of the season’s remaining twelve.
The Twins entered a crucial homestand on August 21st and lost to the Cardinals to open it up. In the second series of the homestand they were swept by the Braves in the second series. The Twins were five and a half games up on the Red Sox (fourth in the wild card race) going into the final series of the homestand against Toronto. They would win the first game of the series against the Blue Jays and proceeded to lose by a score of fifteen runs at home the next day. Despite winning the series against the Blue Jays, this was yet another shot at the depleting morale this team had. The Red Sox lost their series against the Tigers on the same weekend as that series took place, so the Twins gained a crucial game on the team outside of the wild card race. Their lead stood at four and a half games.
On September Ninth, the Twins started their series against the Angels. The Twins would lose the series opener which meant they had lost fourteen of their prior twenty games. Not a flattering number in the month of September. The Twins would respond though, with convincing wins to give them the series win. Minnesota wound up winning the second game of the series by a score of ten to five and the final game of the series six to four. September eleventh was the last day of joy this season would bring for the Twins fans.
As of September 12th, the Twins had a 90.8% chance to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs. This was an off day for the Twins as they would get ready to host an already eliminated from postseason contention Cincinnati Reds. In game one, their best starter, Bailey Ober started, and the Twins would lose eight to four as Ober gave up five runs in a seventh inning that saw the Twins giving up six runs total. The twins would go on to lose the next game by a score of eleven to one despite scoring first. The Reds scored a total of nine runs in the fourth inning to put this game to bed and clinch the series. The Twins would win the final game of the series to stave off the sweep.
The Twins lead for the last wild card spot had dwindled all the way down to two and a half games with just thirteen remaining. The Twins playoff chances were still at eighty-Four percent with seven games coming against teams who did not make the playoffs. Win seven of your remaining thirteen games and you are in the playoffs. The math would boil down to if you avoid a sweep and win two series, you are in the playoffs.
On September sixteenth, the Twins started a series in which they would lose three out of the four games they played to the Cleveland Guardians. Despite going to extra innings twice in this series, in each game the Twins lost they had leads. They had a three-run lead in the first game of the series, and a two-run lead in the bottom of the tenth inning in the final game of the series. At the end of this series, the Twins were just one game ahead of the streaking Detroit Tigers for the last wild card spot. The Twins schedule the rest of the way was far from difficult as none of their three remaining opponents had much to play for while they had everything on the table. After their matchup with the Guardians, the Twins were given a sixty percent chance to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs because of their skid.
The Twins would win their first game against the Red Sox, bumping their chances back up to a whopping eighty percent chance. The Twins had to go to twelve innings, but at this point you take any win how they come. Coming into the double header to close the series, the Twins were half a game up on the Tigers. Split the double header and you are a game up on the Tigers headed into the final week, sweep, and you are up two, get swept and your down two.
The all-important double header against the Tigers started with Minnesota giving up six runs in the first three innings to set up a loss by a score of eight to one. The Twins at the back end of the double header, a game they now need to have, would strike first by scoring two runs in the fifth inning. They would proceed to give up three runs in the bottom of the fifth inning and six runs in the next inning, which included a grand slam. The Twins went from thinking things might work themselves out, to evading another shot with their pitching. Even if you take away Romy Gonzalez’s grand slam in the bottom of the sixth inning, the Red Sox will still find a way to win this game that is a must-win for the Twins by a score of five to three. The Twins’ chances of making the playoffs would jump all the way down to fifty-four percent and would trail the Tigers by one and a half games going into the final week of the regular season.
Following the Red Sox disaster, the Twins hosted the Miami Marlins with their tragic number down to five. A tragic number for a team is how many games they are away from being eliminated, and so in this case a Tigers win would bump the tragic number down a game as would a Twins loss. The Twins were now five results away from a total and complete collapse. The Twins hosted the Miami Marlins and gave up four quick runs in the second inning. The Twins in the bottom of the third inning, would pull a run back just to strand the bases loaded with one out. They would also leave runners in a scoring position with one out, in the bottom of the fifth inning. The Twins proceeded to lose four to one as they moved even closer to playoff elimination. A Tigers win over the Tampa Bay Rays would mean that Detroit was two games from clinching and the Twins were two games from elimination.
In game two of the series, the Twins had a win over the Marlins, eight runs to three. Miami jumped out to an early lead but then the Twins answered by scoring two in the third, one in the fourth and breaking the game wide open with five runs scored in the seventh inning. The Marlins committed four errors in total in the game that propelled the Twins to victory. The Tigers won again in their series with Tampa Bay which meant two losses the rest of the way for the Twins and there would be no postseason for the Twins.
In the final game of the series, the Marlins jumped out to a four-run lead early in the game. In the bottom of the eighth inning, rookie pinch hitter Brooks Lee would tie the game up with a crucial double for the Twins as the game would head to extra innings. The Marlins scored first in extra innings, making the game five to four in the top of the tenth inning. The Twins at home would answer back at the bottom of the tenth inning, loading the bases with no outs. The Twins would even the game up at five a piece but fail to bring the winning run home despite having the grandest of opportunities.
In the bottom of the eleventh inning, the Twins again left the inning failing to score with the bases loaded. In the top of the thirteenth inning, the Marlins offense exploded. With two walks and two hits, the Marlins scored three times in the top of thirteenth, making the most of their opportunities. In the bottom of the thirteenth inning, the Twins would score one run to make it eight to six but failed to get a walk or a hit, so they would lose by a score of eight to six.
As of the twenty-sixth of September, the Twins had a three percent chance of making the playoffs. With a loss or a Tigers win on September 27th, the Twins series will be over. The Twins would end up losing a game that was never close to the Baltimore Orioles, seven-to-two, with their season on the line. Detroit won six of their final eight games, as the two games they dropped were after they clinched a playoff spot.
The Twins ended up getting swept by the Orioles and even if they had swept the Orioles in that series, they still would have missed the playoffs. The Twins were outscored in their final eight games by a score of fifty-four runs to twenty-five. They won one of those games and every single one of those games except for two had their season on the line.
The Minnesota Twins defied all odds in all the wrong ways. The Twins had every chance to make the playoffs with their two stars Brian Buxton and Carlos Correa healthy.
This team lost twenty-six of their last thirty-eight games. In just twelve of those games the Twins scored five or more runs, and seven of those times the Twins won the game. Ahead of only the Royals in the month of September, the Twins had the second worst batting average in the league as a collective. The team went into buy now mode prior to the 2023 season and was unable to build off an impressive season last year.
What’s Next: This collapse could be indicative of either a painful future or a revitalized team. Either way, the win now window is starting to close and with impact players like Will Castro, Trevor Larnach and Carlos Santana both becoming free agents this offseason. Santana and Castro were both healthy for most of the season and were the most consistent and dependable hitters the Twins had. The Twins’ statistically best pitcher of the season will also be a free agent this year, Bailey Ober.
The good news is Carlos Correa and Bryon Buxton are in Minnesota for the long haul as is their other star pitcher, Pablo Lopez who is signed through the 2027 season. There will be more player turnover for the Twins than last year, but their manager, Rocco Baldelli will return. With the Tigers and Guardians having some postseason success, and the first and third youngest teams in the league respectively things will not get any easier for the Twins. It is a long offseason that lasts seven months for the Twins and one that they would have expected not to have seen a head start.
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